It is time to drown the “Is Climate Change Real” Debate.

From right - Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose September 13 following on the heels of the category 4 Hurricane Harvey the week before. Following Hurricane Irma's landfall, Hurricane Maria quickly developed to become a category 5 - Imagery NHC/NOAA 2017

Earth’s climate has always changed. Although an abrupt change, the Younger Dryas occurred 14, 500 years ago, it lasted 3,000 years and resulted in an increase in temperature of 10 degrees celcius over a 10 year period in Greenland. Evidence of this can be found in a cadre of studies of ice and ocean sediment cores. During this period the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) also known as the Gulf Stream – slowed down and most scientists say that this was a result of melting ice sheets dumping fresh water into oceans while decreasing the albedo effect which regulates earth’s temperatures.

Scientists are still collecting data on how the increase in greenhouse gas due to human activity can cause the same kind of abrupt change because 11, 500 years later, earth’s present climate is different in many regards. Still, there are signs that the climate is changing more quickly than it has at any point during earth’s history.

There is scientific consensus that the AMOC is slowing down, our atmosphere and oceans are warming while global sea levels are rising. As hurricanes are a way to distribute heat from the equator to the poles, and hurricanes are fueled by warmer oceans, it is clear that the intensity of hurricanes can be tied to this slowing down of the ocean current system which redistributes heat through the oceans. However scientists are still refining how and how soon we are approaching an abrupt climate change period.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already said that - “there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea-surface temperatures.”. The impact of this increased activity can be seen across the globe from the devastation of 2017 Hurricane season to the longer-term record of coral reef ecosystems.

With all of these scientific studies and after what we’ve seen of Hurricane Maria, Harvey and Irma, does it really matter if humans or natural cycles are responsible for slowing down the AMOC or increasing ocean temperatures? The current changes in weather statistics show us over 30 years of conclusive scientific evidence of unprecedented climate change.

Th earth is on the precipice of adding one more abrupt climate change period in this Holocene inter-glacial period. Even if the time left until this ice age peaks (80,000 years) seems like a long time for the earth and ocean to balance itself in response to an abrupt climate change, if we think about the difference which a 2 degree C increase in temperature has on our human lives from heat stroke, fatigue and food destruction we can understand how much a 10 degree C change over 10 years could create for us. During the Younger Dryas period, this rate of abrupt change led to some extinctions and other damages which undermined the health of established human societies. However most human societies found ways to adapt their cultural responses of how they found water and grew food.

Will humans of today adapt?

We are already seeing why an increase of only 2 degrees C has created problems from wide- reaching ecosystem changes to the health of our coral reefs specifically, which used to create a buffer for any hurricane’s storm surge, especially in the Caribbean.

Now, we can’t say that an abrupt climate change scenario will look like the scenes from "A Day After Tomorrow" because after all, it was a movie. Even though this and many other movies are based on science to a degree, the timing of the disaster was accelerated for Hollywood’s dramatic effect.

We do have record and countless visuals of the reality of climate chaos in the form of more intense hurricanes. It was estimated that by gauging the size of 2017 Hurricanes so far, 2 Hurricane Andrews could have fit inside of one Hurricane Irma.

After seeing three intense September hurricanes on the satellite at the same time in the Atlantic, we should ask ourselves if we want to continue take the risk on a climate change debate while we wait for the confirmation of whether climate change is natural or human induced.

Whether climate change is real or not is not the question at hand for our families, lives, properties, businesses and shared infrastructure. The question is - how long do we have to convert our grey infrastructure to green and hurricane resilient infrastructure before we face another catastrophe.

Known climate change denying politicians have had to deal with the catastrophes of these hurricanes in their states which are most at risk and they will continue face this reality.

At any point do we see these politicians stop the declaration of an emergency while they wait on confirmation that a hurricane is indeed a result of a human-induced climate change? No, the hurricanes happen, the catastrophe happens, the cost of recovery bills rise and the money that some are so reluctant to spend on renewable energy or climate change adaptation is spent anyway on saving lives and reconstruction.

Determining whether climate change is real or even human-induced could be a moot cause. The main purpose of this cause-effect determination is to figure who and how much should be paid by governments and companies around the world to other countries, small businesses and communities which are more immediately impacted by climate change. Most arguments of climate change deniers are becoming null and void. The climate is changing, policy makers, advocates, scientists and everyday citizens have been pushed to make the cause – effect link in order to validate spending on mitigation and adaptation. However, now that we are in the era of climate change effects, earth’s system of redistributing heat is shifting our focus more towards climate change adaptation rather than mitigation The immediate goal of climate change mitigation of thwarting future climate change is gradually becoming irrelevant.

That future is here. Both climate change mitigation and adaptation is now more about self-reliance, self-sufficiency and the survival of human societies through immediately intense natural disasters and gradual life-changing climate change without dependence on centralized systems with alternatives of community based provision of water, energy and food. Historically, human beings have done this before by building agrarian societies or becoming hunter-gatherers. The lessons of adaptation are already in our DNA.

We talk about thinking about the future for our children, we are now being forced to face today’s climate reality. Are we going to continue to watch in paralysis as our future is swept away and drowned in the distraction of a climate change debate which no longer matters? Or are we going to find a way to survive?

Ariana Marshall, Ph.D.

Caribbean dweller and climate changer.

#ClimateChange #Hurricanes